Show HN: Open-source strategy that placed #2 in a prediction market challenge

Category: other

Tags: prediction-markets, trading-strategy, quantitative-finance

Score: 7.3/10 (Innovation: 7, Technical: 8, Documentation: 9, Utility: 5)

This is an open-source market-making strategy for binary prediction markets, which placed 2nd in Paradigm's Prediction Market Challenge. It's interesting because it provides a detailed case study in quantitative trading concepts like adverse selection, inventory risk, and volatility-adjusted quoting, with a key innovation being its exploitation of 'monopoly regimes' when competitor liquidity disappears.

Target audience: data engineers

Repository: https://github.com/octavi42/prediction-market-maker · Python · MIT · 4 stars

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