Show HN: OpenThomas – weather trader agent for prediction markets

Category: cli-tool

Tags: trading-bot, prediction-markets, weather-forecasting, ai-agent, risk-management, kalshi, polymarket, python

Score: 7.8/10 (Innovation: 8, Technical: 9, Documentation: 8, Utility: 6)

OpenThomas is an autonomous AI agent for trading weather-based prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket, combining multi-model forecast consensus, learned station bias, and strict risk management powered by fractional Kelly sizing. Its novel approach of separating deterministic risk logic from LLM adjustments, along with public paper trading and a rigorous backtesting framework addressing known failure modes of AI trading agents, makes it a compelling and well-engineered project for quantitative traders exploring prediction markets.

Target audience: quantitative developers, algorithmic traders, prediction market enthusiasts, financial engineers

Repository: https://github.com/PredictionMarketTrader/openthomas · Python · MIT · 1 stars

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